Publications & Papers  
 

All documents in pdf format.

So Many Ways to Lie: The Complexity of Denial and Deception
This is a paper, written with David T. Moore, that quantifies how denial and deception amplifies the difficulty of reasoning about complex systems. It appeared in the Defense Intelligence Journal. The reference is "Moore, David T. and Reynolds, William N., So Many Ways to Lie: The Complexity of Denial and Deception, Defense Intelligence Journal 15.2 (Fall 2006)."

A Study of Non-State Actors in Sub-Saharan Africa
This is a very interesting study conducted by students at the Mercyhurst College Institute for Intelligence Studies. This work was mentored by Least Squares, and is notable in that the students developed a very interesting methodology for characterizing the environment a state provides for Non-State Actors, both benign and nefarious.


Quantitative Models from Qualitative Data: Case Studies in Agent-Based Socio-political Modeling
This is an update on BASP applications and developments since the overview presented in the HICCS paper below. Emphasis is on analysis of the model space. This refereed paper was presented at the First International Workshop on Complexity and Policy Analysis in Cork, Ireland in June, 2005.

Visualizing the Political Landscape
This is a presentation of the Landscape methodology for analysis of a political problem space. This refereed paper was presented at the First International Conference on Intelligence Analysis in McLean, VA in May, 2005.

The BASP Agent-Based Modeling Framework: Applications, Scenarios and Lessons Learned
This is an application-centric view of BASP and what Least Squares has been doing since 1999. This refereed paper was presented at the 36th Hawai'i International Conference on Systems Sciences (HICSS) in January, 2003.

The Archimedes Combat Modeling Platform
This paper discusses the BASP architecture with applications specific to BASP/Archimedes, an M&S platform tailored to studying small-team reconnaissance, operations other than war (OOTW - peacekeeping, for example), and urban conflicts. This was an invited paper published in the journal Maneuver Warfare Science in 2001.

A General Framework for Representing Behavior in Agent Based Modeling
This paper discusses the BASP architecture and considers the general problems of M&S as a decision-making tool. This was an invited paper for the Complex Systems and Policy Analysis: New Tools for a New Millennium symposium at the RAND Corporation Science & Technology Policy Institute in 2000.
 



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